Employment information reported in the accompanying Economic Indicators shows employment and unemployment data for the months of July and August only.   Employment data for September in St. Tammany Parish was not available because the Louisiana Department of Labor did not have household sample data for the Parish.   Without having September data it is not known what the impact Hurricane Katrina had on the employment picture in the Parish for September.  Over 1,800 initial unemployment claims were filed in September.  For the third quarter 1,984 initial unemployment claims were filed which was 751.5% higher compared to the third quarter last year.  Year-to-date claims filed were 185.0% higher than claims filed year-to-date last year.  Since it is not known how many persons were employed in September, it is also not known how many persons were unemployed as well.  St. Tammany employment data will not be available until household sample data is available and the month that happens is not known at this time.

Availability of single-family building permit data in the third quarter has been interrupted until reporting can be reestablished and permit data can then be issued.  The only piece of data available was the 159 single-family building permits issued in July and 174 permits in August for the unincorporated area of St. Tammany Parish.  No commercial building permit data was available for any of the months in the third quarter.

Third quarter house sales were 142.0% higher than for the third quarter last year.  Most of the third quarter sales occurred in July and August, 1,355 and 1,044, respectively.  September house sales numbered 355.  This brought year-to-date sales 55.3% higher than year-to-date sales last year.  Third quarter dollar sales volume were 177.5% higher than dollar sales volume in the third quarter last year.  Year-to-date dollar sales volume was 77.1% higher than year-to-date sales volume last year.  Third quarter average sales price of $214,316 was 14.7% higher than average sales price in the third quarter last year.   Year-to-date average sales price was 14.0% higher than last year-to-date average sales price.  July and August increased purchases were possibly caused by prospective buyers who were pressed to buy in order to beat rising mortgage rates.  Through most of October, insurance money had not been paid to homeowners who experienced losses.   This means November, December and January could see significant home sales because insurance money will probably be available then for possible purchases.  The standing housing inventory is largely in the higher price ranges.  As an example of higher prices, current average sales price per square foot ranges is between $113 and $119.   This means that a 1,700 square foot (living area) house could cost between $192,100 and $202,300.  Middle-income family houses priced in the $125,000 and $175,000 may be difficult to find in the listing inventory.

St. Tammany third quarter total sales were $34,729,355, which was 7.1% below third quarter sales last year.  In the third quarter, August over August total sales were down 33.3% while September over September sales were up 8.3%.  Year-to-date total sales were 4.5% ahead of last year-to-date total sales.  Many Parish retail businesses suffered either storm damage or the lack of necessary employees, or both, to reopen for business.  Some businesses suffered total damage loss making it impossible to reopen.  Many businesses will repair storm damage or rebuild and reopen depending on the extent of damage incurred and how long it will take to make repairs or rebuild.   Expectations are that total sales in the remaining three months of 2005 will continue to grow and exceed corresponding months last year.  A considerable portion of the sales increase over the next three months will be as a result of spending to rebuild residential and business properties as well as spending by parish residents and remaining evacuees which will contribute to the increased Parish population base.

During the third quarter announced projects investment amounted to $16,325,000 compared to $13,897,000 announced investment or an increase of 17.5% the third quarter last year. Year-to-date announced investment was down 18.7% compared to year-to-date numbers last year.  Third quarter announced investment is expected to generate 275 permanent jobs and 309 construction jobs.  Of the eight announced projects in the third quarter, one was a new project and seven were expansions of existing facilities.

Third quarter electric customer count was 3.1% higher than third quarter customer count last year.  Electric customer count growth has been slowing somewhat due largely to fewer residential building permits issued in the first and second quarters.  Third quarter slower growth is hard to determine because there was a customer decline due to the hurricane.  As far as can be determined the customer count decline was as many as 750 with the decline primarily occurring the last few days in August and the month of September.  What cannot be determined is how many customers lost power and have to wait until their homes are brought back to livability before electric service can be restored.

Third quarter total hotel receipts amounted to $5,914,333 which was 1.2% lower than total receipts in the third quarter last year while year-to-date total receipts were 2.2% ahead of last year-to-date receipts.  September receipts of $2,643,297 were the highest receipts going back to before 1999.  Most September receipts were the result of people being displaced from their homes and sought refuge in hotel rooms as the result of hurricanes Katrina and Rita.  How long these receipts will be on the high side will depend on the need for hotel rooms by displaced persons and others.

Second quarter 2005 cost of living index for St. Tammany Parish was 96.1.  Based on a 100 scale, St. Tammany Parish composite cost of living for middle management households was 3.1% below the national average.  St. Tammany Parish second quarter ranking was 9th among a group of twelve selected metropolitan areas nearest geographically to St. Tammany Parish with composite indices ranging from 88.5 for Jackson, MS to 100.0 for Baton Rouge.   Other metropolitan area indexes are Mobile, 89.7; Beaumont, 90.2; Tuscaloosa, 90.7; Hattiesburg, 92.6; Biloxi-Gulfport, 93.0; Lafayette, 95.6; Montgomery, 95.8; Lake Charles, 96.7; and Pensacola, 97.1.
This issue of the Trends Report presents the initial reporting of the inflation rate for St. Tammany Parish and will be reported on a quarterly basis.  St. Tammany Parish inflation rate will be reported along with the Southern Region of the United States inflation rate for comparison.  Third quarter inflation rate for the Parish was 4.4% compared to Southern Region rate of 4.0%.  High gasoline prices are the main reason for the jump in the rate in the third quarter.  Data used to compute the St. Tammany inflation rate was taken from the ACCRA Cost of Living Survey items.  The survey is conducted quarterly.  It should be noted the Southern Region of the United States survey of basket of goods contains over 250 items whereas the ACCRA Cost of Living basket contains 56 items.  Some sections of the St. Tammany survey contain only three components.  This means the inflation rate computed for the Parish is subject to wider rate swings.  Rate comparisons of the Parish with the Southern Region rate can be caused by a significant price change in one item in a low-item section in the Parish index.

After plummeting in September, The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index fell again in October.  “Much of the decline in confidence over the past two months can be attributed to the recent hurricanes, pump shock and a weakening labor market,” says Lynn Franco, Director of The Conference Board Consumer Research Center. ”Consumers’ assessment of current conditions however, remains above readings a year ago, but their short-term expectations are significantly below last October’s level.  This degree of pessimism, in conjunction with the anticipation of much higher home heating bills this winter, may take some cheer out of the upcoming holiday season.  In order to avoid a blue Christmas, retailers will need to lure shoppers with sales and discounts.  Consumers’ overall assessment of ongoing conditions was less positive in October.  The short-term outlook was mixed, but less positive than in September.  The outlook for the labor market was less optimistic.”

The U. S. “leading index decreased sharply in September as economic impact of hurricanes in the Gulf region began to be reflected in the component data.  September’s decline in the leading index is the third consecutive fall. In September, the largest negative contributors to the leading index were the index of consumer expectations and initial claims for unemployment insurance.  Growth rate of the leading index has been slowing steadily from a peak growth at the end of 2003.   Excluding large positive contributions from the interest rate spread, the leading index has been fluctuating around a relatively flat trend throughout 2005. The coincident index, a measure of current economic activity, decreased in September, and the slight increase in August was revised down to a slight decrease as actual data for personal income, which partially reflects the impact of Hurricane Katrina, became available.   September’s decline in the coincident index is also partly due to the effect of the hurricanes as employment and industrial production registered decreases.  The coincident index has been increasing since April 2003 but its growth rate has moderated in recent months.”   The St. Tammany economy had a 7.6% negative growth in the third quarter and a 1.0% annual gain.  See the “St. Tammany Composite Growth Index for the Parishes economic detailed third quarter and annual activity.

ECONOMIC INDICATORS